Strategy9 min read
How Much Runway Do You Actually Need? The Real Math for a 2026 Job Search
Founder & Chief AI Officer, Orbyt
Building AI-native platforms for $383M+ in enterprise value
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Founder & Chief AI Officer, Orbyt
Building AI-native platforms for $383M+ in enterprise value
Explore
Most advice says save six months. Most job searches in 2026 take longer. The median mid-career search runs four to seven months, and senior roles run six to ten. Build a real runway number using: monthly essentials, plus COBRA or marketplace health costs, plus a twenty percent cushion, times nine. If the number scares you, it should. Cut the lifestyle before you cut the search. Apply to fewer jobs, not more. And negotiate every dollar of severance and unemployment you can, because those are the only two levers that move the runway math in your favor after you are already out.
Most job search advice starts with the resume. It should start with the bank account.
The first question I asked myself after I was laid off was not "what do I want to do next." It was "how long can I afford to figure that out." And I could not find a straight answer anywhere. Every article said "save three to six months of expenses" like that was a fact instead of a number someone made up in 2004.
This post is the answer I wish I had found. Real math. Real timelines. Real numbers from 2026. No hedging.
Runway is the number of months you can cover your essential expenses with the money you already have. That is it. It is not savings. It is not investments. It is not "net worth." It is the cash and cash-equivalent assets you can actually spend this week without selling a house or unwinding a retirement account.
Three things go into the number.
Essentials. Rent or mortgage. Utilities. Groceries. Insurance. Transportation. Minimum debt payments. Anything you cannot stop paying without consequences.
Health insurance. This is the one everyone forgets. If you had employer-sponsored health insurance, you now pay for it yourself. COBRA is typically four to six times what you were paying as a paycheck deduction. Twelve hundred dollars a month is not unusual. See the severance guide for the COBRA breakdown.
Cushion. Things break. Cars need tires. Teeth need fillings. You will need roughly twenty percent on top of your essentials for the surprises.
Your runway is the total of those three, divided into your spendable cash. Simple.
The "save six months" advice is based on outdated assumptions about the job market. Here is what the actual data says for 2026.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks median duration of unemployment monthly. The 2026 average is hovering around twenty-two weeks, which is just over five months. That is the median, which means half of all searches take longer than that.
Six months of runway is not conservative. It is the minimum.
Get a piece of paper. Write the following four lines. Fill them in honestly.
Line one. Monthly essentials. Rent, utilities, groceries, phone, transportation, insurance, minimum debt payments. If you share expenses, write your half.
Line two. Monthly health insurance. If you are on COBRA, the full premium plus the two percent admin fee. If you are on a marketplace plan, the subsidized premium after the expected income-based subsidy kicks in. If you are on a spouse or parent plan, zero.
Line three. Twenty percent cushion. Multiply line one by zero point two. That is your buffer for things you cannot predict.
Line four. Total monthly burn. Add lines one through three.
Now divide your spendable cash, including severance if you received one, by line four. That is your runway in months.
That is the number that matters. Not your savings account balance. Not your net worth. Not your 401k. The months of essential coverage you can fund before you have to take any job, not the right job.
Example. Two thousand four hundred in essentials, twelve hundred in COBRA, four hundred and eighty cushion. Total monthly burn: four thousand eighty. If you have twenty-four thousand in cash plus severance, that is just under six months of runway. That is the minimum for a mid-career search in 2026.
If your runway is less than the expected median for your role level, you have three levers. Most people pull the wrong one.
The wrong lever: applying to more jobs.
Applying to two hundred jobs a month does not shorten your search. It extends it. You are now exhausting yourself on applications that are not a fit, burning out on rejection, and spreading your effort thin across opportunities you do not want. The math gets worse, not better.
The right levers.
Cut the burn rate first. Every dollar you remove from line one adds days to the runway. Do this before anything else. Pause subscriptions. Renegotiate insurance. Move if you have to. The difference between three thousand and four thousand in monthly burn is two months of runway on a twelve-thousand-dollar cushion.
Apply to fewer jobs, better. The candidates who land faster are the ones who apply to fifteen well-researched roles with tailored materials, not a hundred copy-paste applications. Every Orbyt user who lands in under three months averages around eight to fifteen applications per week, not fifty.
Negotiate every dollar of severance. If you got severance, it is negotiable before you sign. More weeks, extended COBRA, pro-rated bonus, accelerated vesting. See the negotiation guide. Each additional week of severance is a full week of runway.
File for unemployment the day you are laid off. Not next week. Not after you sign the severance. The day of. Most states have a one-week waiting period before benefits start, and that clock only begins when you file. See severance vs unemployment for state-by-state rules.
Never let your runway get below three months without a signed offer in hand.
Three months is the point where a bad decision starts to look reasonable. A role you do not want. A salary cut you cannot afford long-term. A company you know is sinking. At three months of runway, desperation takes over, and desperation is the most expensive thing in a job search. It costs you the compounding value of every dollar you will earn for the next three to five years of that role.
If your runway is approaching three months and you do not have a signed offer, stop optimizing the search and start extending the runway. A side contract. A two-month consulting gig. A part-time role. Anything that adds income without locking you into the wrong full-time position is worth it at three months.
I was a job seeker when I started building Orbyt. I had runway for nine months because I had been planning for a layoff for a year before it happened. I built a product instead of panic-applying. That is the luxury runway buys: the ability to build leverage instead of begging for a job.
Most people do not get nine months. Most people get three, if they are lucky. The math in this post is the math that could have changed my mind if I had read it in 2024. Which is why I wrote it.
Orbyt tracks your runway alongside your job pipeline, your interviews, your follow-ups, and your wellness. Not because the math is hard. The math is easy. Because when you are in the middle of a job search, the number that matters most is the one you keep forgetting to look at. A CRM that ignores your financial reality is a spreadsheet with a logo.
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